Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.952513 1.159750 1.380525 1.631268 1.906286 2.197057 2.526063
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.714311 1.003115 1.333670 1.731663 2.190295 2.695612 3.288147
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.566514 0.889752 1.280025 1.769108 2.350852 3.008068 3.794842
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.440615 0.779767 1.212160 1.775050 2.464028 3.259500 4.228518
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.322856 0.656344 1.107831 1.719036 2.488401 3.395090 4.517374
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.232326 0.552393 1.014347 1.664415 2.504584 3.513371 4.779850
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.169753 0.476279 0.947686 1.635155 2.544540 3.653961 5.063346
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.134420 0.437105 0.928044 1.664332 2.655532 3.879026 5.446677
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.101723 0.393927 0.896751 1.673273 2.737333 4.066081 5.782840
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.069343 0.340274 0.842290 1.644471 2.765790 4.183972 6.032856
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.063084 0.343726 0.879884 1.748142 2.971060 4.525130 6.557942
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.057163 0.346313 0.915394 1.848646 3.172393 4.861994 7.078848
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.050259 0.346867 0.951338 1.956903 3.394494 5.238351 7.665754
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.043595 0.346229 0.985343 2.063642 3.617045 5.618788 8.262539
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.031982 0.324437 0.978627 2.106671 3.750646 5.883988 8.715048
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.020102 0.292485 0.949333 2.112653 3.831638 6.080777 9.082193
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.008386 0.243298 0.879842 2.050921 3.814534 6.147833 9.284754
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.002148 0.200145 0.814441 1.990369 3.795250 6.209249 9.478015
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.000178 0.169363 0.768976 1.957961 3.812694 6.316009 9.725843
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.156766 0.762707 1.990293 3.923664 6.546959 10.132453
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.140253 0.744224 2.000202 4.000918 6.732507 10.480920
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.116815 0.703331 1.968284 4.014523 6.831469 10.717394
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.123743 0.744509 2.083063 4.248179 7.228645 11.340028